| Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Don Young | 42,461 | 45.48% |
| Sean Parnell | 42,316 | 45.32% |
| Gabrielle LeDoux | 8,589 | 9.20% |
RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com
12:06PM: I’m awake and alive. Let’s keep this party going over in thread #3.
9:59AM (David): Wow. With 97.9% of all precincts counting, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead. Let’s pray it holds.
6:27AM: Alright, one more update. Parnell’s lead has shrunk to 142 votes with 89% reporting.
6:04AM: My friends, I am zonked. We’ll sort this mess out in the morning. Goodnight, all!
5:51AM: With just under 86% of precincts reporting, Young has cut the deficit to just 213 votes. In other news, I can’t believe I’m still awake.
5:17AM: Young has inched back a bit closer, trailing Parnell by 263 votes with 84% counted. They don’t come any closer than this.
4:53AM: Parnell gains back a bit of precious ground — he’s now up by 367 votes with 76% counted.
4:47AM: Well, things seem to have screeched to a stop, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for deciding to hit the hay right now. I’m going to give this a few more minutes, myself.
4:28AM: If there was any doubt, just ask the locals:
Most of the uncounted precincts are in rural Alaska villages, where Young has traditionally enjoyed strong support.
4:20AM: Our back of the cocktail napkin analysis reveals that Young will have to run roughly 0.7% better in the two-candidate vote in the outstanding precincts in order to win. Entirely doable.
4:05AM: By “popular demand”, SSP is calling AK-Sen for Ted Stevens and Mark Begich. Our number crunchers are also coloring a gigantic imaginary red check mark beside Ethan Berkowitz’s name.
3:55AM: Getting closer — Parnell is up by just 230 votes. Come on, you old bastard!
3:51AM ET: Time for a fresh new thread.
it’s close !
the interior villages, and we have almost half of them left. good sign.
Because if he is, that’s pretty much all thats left plus half of his home base in 6.
just a couple precincts left. It’s going to come down to 6, 8 and 36-40.
I think those races are done
19607/23170 votes coming from 6, 37-40. Only other major district left is 8 with about 1200. How certain are we that 6, 37-40 is Young territory?
I want to see a long, drawn-out recount, with both sides hiring expensive lawyers, and then an eventual decision for the corrupt incumbent. Not only does that tie up their side’s campaigning almost as well as a trial would do, it will tar Sean Parnell as a loser. That can be very damaging to a politico, see Ciro Rodriguez still trying to live down his primary losses to Henry Cuellar. Or consider the trouble Larry LaRocco has getting a paragraph written about him that fails to mention that he lost twice before to his opponent in this race, Jim Risch, nevermind however many factors may make this year, and this race, different from the earlier ones.
The only downside to a drawn-out recount is that the window for an Obama visit to Alaska is already limited. He probably should make his campaign stops before the Ted Stevens trial starts, in order to avoid any awkward questions requiring him to answer presidentially with stuff about innocent until proven guilty, which we don’t need to hear, actually.
Keep it within a half a percent. I think we can do that.
link to a new thread!
Rep. Young, I wish you well. I’m with you all the way — and remember, if you don’t win, demand a recount, sue the Parnell campaign for voter intimidation, sue the AK SoS, sue Club for Growth, sue everyone!
http://www.adn.com/elections/s…
Polls showed Parnell the stronger candidate in the general, granted, but they also showed him beating Young handily in the primary. Parnell apparently cratered in the last two weeks. That cratering might have deepened if he had continued on to the general, with Young possibly supporting Berkowitz.
As it is, it looks as though Young will pull it out, just barely. He’s a familiar face to Alaskans, many of whom are grateful to him for his earmarks. I think it will be a tough race for our guy.
Any idea if they just quit counting?
In the words of Mr. Burns, I like the cut of his gib
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08…
On the bridge side, Anchorage is completely finished now, but it’s a bit of a margin to make up. I think Young can do it.
Parnell gained votes.
Great job James, everyone. It’s been fun, but at this rate, 100% won’t be in for a while… I will have a good thought that Don pulls this out, or at least takes it to court.
but are still connecting the tubes to get it here!
LeDoux, Gabrielle REP 8380 9.17%
Parnell, Sean R. REP 41613 45.56%
Young, Don E. REP 41350 45.27%
263 vote magin
From the Anchorage Daily News’ election blog:
Fantastic….
Doesn’t look too good for Young. But he is within the range of a recount.
closed the gap by 50 votes with 8 precincts.
so i’m back for a bit more 😉
LeDoux, Gabrielle REP 8478 9.20%
Parnell, Sean R. REP 41940 45.52%
Young, Don E. REP 41727 45.28%
Down to a 213 vote margin.
375/438
was thinking for a moment, that cant be right! and i have statistics in 4 hours, god!
on Sunday August 31st highlighting fundraising from Wisconsin’s competitive legislative races. The fundraising period was January – June. I’ll hopefully find links for the 2006 results and actblue pages for candidates, and background information on desperate Republican tactics. Rumor has it they are push-polling, on top of trying to primary Democrats.
It’s confusing, with the percentages 45.52 to 45.25!
HD 5 – 1 precinct left
HD 6 – 1
HD 12 – 1
HD 36 – 2
HD 37 – 7
HD 38 – 18
HD 39 – 18
HD 40 – 15
There’s the outstanding precincts. Goodnight
if Fort Yukon is that last precinct left in 6.
I’ve been out and back again already!
I think the late hour is getting to us all — except for those damn Brits among us. 🙂
Another 14 precincts just came in, the margin closed another 71 votes to make it a 142-vote margin with 389/438 total precincts reporting.
I was stuck in the other thread…
But here it is.. a new thread with so much info! Ah… :o)
impossible to abandon young!
Nice to see Begich totally smoking his primary, as well as Berkowitz. Now let’s see if that 33% that voted for Vickers and Cuddy can be persuaded to vote Democrat this fall.
And AK-AL still isn’t called? Just how remote are these villages anyway? Is it like an igloo with no broadband?
Okay, sorry for the stereotype, but hey I’ve never been to Alaska (keeping my fingers crossed for that cruise up their in May!)
I hope the title got your attention. Oh yeah, I thought the keynote speech last night from Warner was great. Anyone else leave their computers temporarily and watched that? Or even, God forbid, Hillary’s speech?
Young has just taken a 61 vote lead. Just 17 precincts remain, but the two from house districts 5 and 12 will be worth watching, they might not even be enough for Parnell with more 36-40 and one 6 out.
Check my latest update.
Think he’ll pull it off.
The intrepid Anchorage Daily News is reporting yet another wrinkle in this mess. The state mailed out 16,000 absentee ballots. Some 7,600 were received by Tuesday (not all of these may have been counted so far). The remaining 8,400 votes must be 1)received within 10 days and 2) must be mailed by election day. Who knows how many will be received in time?
As a comparison, Washington state votes are still being counted from last week’s primary. Approximately 39,000 remain after a full week. Dave Reichert stretched his lead over Darcy Burner from 2,000 to a depressing 6,000 vote margin.
I would guess that absentees would favor Don Young but …
In 2006, Palin blew Murkowski away in the primary, and it was clear that Republicans were ready to eject him and move on. Obviously it was not the case with Young and this performance leaves me feeling good about facing Parnell. Of course, we owe some thianks to LeDoux.
With nine precincts left, Don Young leads by 145 votes. They are pouring in now.
I thought there was a poll showing Parnell further ahead than that, but it’s late, and I might be misremembering.
And I’m sorry to have harshed the buzz. Perhaps I should have waited until tomorrow to make my point.
Well, Young is ahead by 145 votes with only 9 precincts outstanding (42,461 to 42,316). Sounds like the absentees will keep this one up in the air for awhile, though.
From the Alaska Daily News:
Republican (429 of 438 precincts reporting)
Ledoux, Gabrielle 8,589 9%
Parnell, Sean R. 42,316 45%
Young, Don E. 42,461 45%
Nine precincts left!
Honestly, I do not know how this could have turned out better for the Democrats. Unless Parnell is a coward and does not contest this — he is, after all, a huge empty suit — Young is going to declare victory (if he hasn’t already). Let’s hope the lawyers get involved and drag this thing out for weeks. It can only help Ethan Berkowitz run away from an uncertain GOP field!
Incredible, I’m operating on three hours sleep.
It looks like Young’s got this one, but it’s well within 0.5%.
We’ve got a couple of days while absenteee ballots and the like come in, then we have a nasty recount battle.
If Young was behind, he’d have gone nuclear, but Parnell is a “reformer” and no successful reformer is a wilting flower. Plus the Club for Growth got involved, and they play hardball.
Now we just need Berkowitz to drop a rhetorical grenade into the middle of it and sit back and watch the fireworks.
I feel good about it.
It’s a perfect storm 🙂
This is like the Republican equivalent of Al Wynn — younger, energetic rookie takes on seasoned corrupt pol of same party. Donna Edwards came so close to ousting him in the 2006 primary.
Luckily for us, it looks like Parnell won’t have the chance to challenge Young again in 2 years. If he wants the House seat, he’ll have to run against incumbent Berkowitz.
if there is a recount and Young’s lead holds I have to say this is the best case situation.
Hello Rep Ethan Berkowitz!
Went to sleep at 1 and awoke at 4 EDT.
The Anchorage Daily News had a story about Don Young crashing a Parnell press conference a few days ago where Parnell was criticizing the DCCC for sending out fliers attaacking Parnell. Young hijacked the meeting and turned his piece into an attack on the “anti-earmark” outsiders from the Club For Growth who are funding most of Parnell’s campaign.
Makes you wonder if Parnell is a little slow on his feet. The ADN (which is feuding with Young, and vice versa) carried multiple pictures of Parnell and his wife and only one of Young shaking hands with Parnell. Actually, it was the back of Young’s head.
HD5 – 1 precinct
HD6 – 1
HD12 – 1
HD36 – 2
HD37 – 1
HD38 – 2
HD39 – 1
All of these precincts are in rural House Districts where Young apparently did well.
Y’mean six?
Also, the internet is not something you just dump stuff on; it’s not a big SUV.
With most of the precincts remaining being in the Interior and the Bush, Young likely won’t lose any ground. The key is outstanding absentee ballots.
From ADN:
http://www.adn.com/elections/s…
So, it is unclear how many GOP absentee ballots are remaining, and there even be more in the mail. Young’s statement seems to suggest there are 4,000 outstanding.
http://www.donyoung08.com/news…
Something tells me this ain’t getting resolved today.
What he really means to say is “Once the ballots are being done counted, Lt. Gov. Parnell will be able to determine how and when he wants to concede and endorse me.